Indian Air Strikes: What Will Pakistan Do Next? Four Key Questions Explained

 

Tensions Soar After Indian Air Strikes Across Pakistan and Kashmir: What We Know

In a dramatic overnight operation, India claims it launched coordinated missile and air strikes on nine locations across Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, targeting what it described as militant strongholds based on "credible intelligence."

The strikes reportedly lasted just 25 minutes, from 01:05 to 01:30 India time (19:35–20:00 GMT), jolting residents awake with deafening explosions and sending shockwaves across the region.

Pakistan offered a different account, saying only six sites were struck. It also claimed to have downed five Indian fighter jets and a drone—claims that India has yet to confirm.

Islamabad reported that 26 people were killed and 46 others wounded by Indian strikes and shelling along the Line of Control (LoC), the disputed border that divides Kashmir. Meanwhile, India said 10 civilians were killed in Pakistani shelling on its side of the LoC.

Rising Tensions After Pahalgam Attack

The sudden escalation follows last month's deadly militant assault on tourists in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir—an incident that has pushed tensions between the two nuclear-armed rivals to alarming new levels.

India has accused Pakistan-based militant groups and foreign handlers of orchestrating the Pahalgam attack, claiming to possess "clear evidence." Pakistan has firmly rejected the accusations, insisting that no such proof has been presented.

Is This a New Chapter in Indo-Pak Military Tensions?

India has launched retaliatory operations in the past—most notably the 2016 “surgical strikes” following the Uri attack, and the 2019 Balakot airstrikes after the Pulwama bombing. However, analysts suggest this latest response is broader in scale and ambition.

According to Indian officials, this operation targeted infrastructure belonging to three major militant groups: Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and Hizbul Mujahideen.

The strikes included two camps in Sialkot, located just 6 to 18 km from the Indian border. The deepest target was allegedly a Jaish-e-Mohammed headquarters in Bahawalpur, nearly 100 km inside Pakistan. Another strike hit a LeT camp in Muzaffarabad, about 30 km from the LoC, which India says was linked to recent attacks in Kashmir.

Pakistan acknowledges that six sites were hit but denies the existence of any militant camps, calling India’s narrative "unfounded and provocative." 

India's Strikes Mark a Significant Shift in Strategy, Say Experts

“What stands out this time is the expanded scope of India’s military action,” says Delhi-based historian Srinath Raghavan in an interview with the BBC. “Earlier strikes, like those on Balakot in 2019, were confined to Pakistan-administered Kashmir, across the Line of Control—a heavily militarised and disputed boundary.”

“But this time,” Raghavan explains, “India has crossed the officially recognised International Border into Pakistan’s Punjab province, targeting high-value militant infrastructure in cities like Bahawalpur and Muridke. These are known strongholds of Lashkar-e-Taiba. Assets linked to Jaish-e-Mohammed and Hizbul Mujahideen were also hit. It signals a more expansive and deliberate approach, suggesting India now views multiple groups as active threats—and wants that message heard loud and clear.”

The India-Pakistan International Border runs from Gujarat to Jammu and is globally recognised as the official boundary between the two countries—unlike the contested Line of Control in Kashmir.

Ajay Bisaria, former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, described the action as a “Balakot-plus” operation. Speaking to the BBC, he said: “This is not just about retaliation—it’s about restoring deterrence. India targeted well-known terror hubs, but did so with precision, and paired the strikes with signals of de-escalation.”

According to Bisaria, the strikes were “more accurate, more visible, and thus harder for Pakistan to deny or dismiss.”

Indian officials echo that sentiment, saying the primary objective was to “re-establish deterrence.”

Professor Raghavan adds, “The government believes the deterrent effect created after Balakot in 2019 has eroded over time. This new operation appears to follow a doctrine similar to Israel’s—where deterrence is maintained through periodic, visible military action.”

But he also warns of the risks: “Assuming that retaliation alone can suppress terrorism could backfire. It might instead provoke a retaliatory spiral from Pakistan, and that could escalate rapidly out of ..............Read More

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